Apple’s (AAPL) Earnings on Deck

Apple earnings have indicated past market tops and ones we have correctly predicted. It wouldn’t surprise us a bit if the same scenario plays out this earnings cycle with an uptick in volatility ahead of the Presidential election. However, the charts remain bullish for the major indexes, along with Apple’s chart.

On Thursday, August 1st, the Nasdaq traded to an intraday high of 17,791 with Apple announcing after the close. By August 5th, the Monday intraday low tapped 15,708 on the Nasdaq and represented a nasty and quick 12% selloff. Apple shares were up 0.7% on the Friday afterwards, August 2nd, but tumbled 4.8% the following Monday, August 5th.

On Tuesday, August 1st, 2023, the Nasdaq traded to an intraday high of 14,309 with Apple announcing after the Thursday close two days later. By August 18th, the Nasdaq smacked an intraday low of 13,161 and represented an 8% spanking. Apple shares were down 4.8% that Friday.

The good news for the bulls is that the following earnings announcement from Apple in November 2023 represented a near-term bottom for the Nasdaq and an eventual bull market rally that has lasted throughout much of 2024.

Shares of Apple recently tagged an all-time high of $237.49 on the 15th but have basically been rangebound between $214-$237.50 since mid-June. This type of action typically indicates a major move but another average 5% move to the downside, or roughly $11-$12, from current levels would just send shares towards the middle of the range and slightly below the 50-day moving average.

A 10% move to the south would be around $23 for the stock and would push shares below $208 while getting the 200-day moving average in play. A blowout quarter and an upbeat outlook would get shares above $254 on a 10% pop. This is what we would consider a breakout of breakdown out of the current trading range.

Wall Street is looking for a profit of $1.60 a share on revenue of north of $94 billion. Apple has topped earnings the past six quarters so a miss could be another curveball the market gets for a possible bear attack. Apple report after the close on Thursday, October 31st.