Bank Of America Spots An €800 Billion Cliff
Ever since the ECB commenced buying tens of billions of sovereign and corporate bonds, it is undeniable that Europe’s economic picture brightened substantially, eliminating occasional flash crises such as Greece and Italy which had a contagious event on the rest of the Eurozone, and why not: after all there was a definitive backstop to all
the risk – nothing bad was allowed to happen, or as Draghi said, any adverse outcomes would be fixed “whatever it takes.”
But in recent months Europe’s economic picture has turned decidedly dour, if not so much in the primary data where things are still stable, then certainly in manufacturing surveys, and especially for Europe’s economic dynamo, the export economy. As the chart below shows, PMI trends for new export orders have fallen notably in 2018 – and not just for Europe, but also for Japan and the US. This, according to BofA’s Barnaby Martin, “may point to less vibrant export activity across the world. For Europe, whether this is really the case, or just a reflection of €-strength earlier in the year, remains to be seen. But for now we think the economic data has not been convincing enough to ignite enough of a rally in European risk assets”