What to Watch: US, China, and Brexit
What you need to know for S&P, Dow and Nasdaq market trades…
U.S. indices S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq got off to a mixed start after five strong days of gains behind improved China-U.S. relations and positive manufacturing data. Today, several reports show significant differences to be ironed out between the two sides before a deal can be brokered. This, along with the fast approaching April 12th Brexit deadline, is holding back global markets.
Why Trump’s visit to China is something you should watch…
President Trump is scheduled to join trade talks today and announce the date of his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi. Nissan and Tesla are facing some challenges with their latest missteps while Facebook could be in the midst of another data issue. You need to monitor seasonality charts and 200-day moving average for a good indication of market direction. Currently, the market has broken out of range with new support is at $280-$284 and on track to retest 52 weeks high of $294. The SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Market Analysis & Dashboard for Every Trader
While the Dow and S&P remain positive today, the Nasdaq index is on track to close slightly lower. President Trump is set to join U.S.-China negotiations today, bringing tariff talks to the forefront. China has requested for the $250 billion in tariffs to be removed as soon as a deal is signed while it has been reported the U.S. would like to keep them intact and slowly peel them back to ensure China follows through on the deal. Likewise, the U.S. is also reportedly looking at 2025 as a target deadline for China to follow through on the new trade pledges.
With talks heating up look for more news to arrive in the coming days, along with Trump’s announcement of when he will sit down with Chinese President Xi. Both Asian and European markets close to mixed results today, likely also stalled by Brexit turmoil. April 12th marks another deadline for Parliament to agree upon a deal though no deal has yet come close to being supported by the majority. One vote that was able to garner majority support, though only by one vote, is to block a potential no-Brexit deal. The situation remains muddled and will continue to unfold as more votes take place.
Car stocks to watch
Former Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn was arrested for the fourth time today, once more being charged for misusing company funds. The reported losses for the company have been projected to near $5 million while Ghosn continues to speak out against the charges. Tesla, meanwhile, is struggling to follow through on global shipments of its Model 3 sedan. Deliveries for the model have stalled by 31% in the first quarter of 2019. Facebook is once again in the limelight with further data issues, this time roping in Amazon cloud services as well.
An estimated 500 million pieces of personal data have been stored on Amazon clouds off of Facebook servers. News has yet to influence Facebook stock as the company is on track to record almost 2% gains for the day while Amazon is on track for slight losses. Finally, Constellation Brands, the popular beverage and alcohol company which recently invested in cannabis company Canopy growth, reported earnings before market open today. The company reported earnings that topped expectations which helped shares rise nearly 6% today.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.15% moves to -1.57% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,853.34. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On March 29th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Xerox Corp (XRX). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
XRX entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $32.01 (± 0.16) in its second hour of trading and passed through its Target price $32.33 in the first hour of trading the following trading day. The Stop Loss price was set at $31.69.
Friday Morning Featured Stock
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured stock for Friday is American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL). AAL is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $33.95 at the time of publication, up 1.00% from the open with a +1.10% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil for May delivery (CLK9) is priced at $62.58 per barrel, up 0.19% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $13.03 at the time of publication. Vector figures show +0.21% today, which turns +4.92% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for June Gold (GCM9) is up 0.03% at $1,295.70 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $121.93, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.18% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 0.67% at 2.50% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.65% at 2.92% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.16% moves to -1.35% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 0.15% at $13.72 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $13.92 with a vector of +6.14%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.