Powell Concludes Two-Day House Meeting as Major Earnings Continue
U.S. assets look strong today with the Dow Jones heading for its fifth straight day of gains and the S&P modestly up. Strong economic reports and promising earnings data continue to support markets even with consistent trade war concerns and the occasional dud in economic data. Housing Starts for June were reported down 12.3% but this did not seem to dampen today’s action. Continue monitoring 50-day moving averages and earnings reports alongside my seasonality charts for good indication on where to enter and exit positions for the best results.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will conclude his two-day meeting with the House financial committee. Yesterday, Powell indicated that interest rates will continue to, for the foreseeable future, go up every three months. Powell neither affirmed nor denied whether the U.S was currently in a trade war, stating “it is not for me to say,” but did acknowledge the plausibility of this threat. Still, markets responded positively, with the Nasdaq making record gains for the month yesterday. Look for the Fed’s Beige Book, set to release today, to supplement economic data and direction.
Morgan Stanley is recording solid gains after its solid earnings report, as did United Continental Holdings and Abbott Laboratories. American Express, IBM, and eBay are all scheduled to report today after the market closes. European markets rallied today after slumping to start the week and most of last week while Asian markets continue to struggle. Microsoft, Capital One, and GE will close out the week in major earnings reports.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. Today’s vector figure of 0.00% moves to 1.08% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On July 17th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Monster Beverage Corp New (MNST). ActiveTrader, included in all Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for short-term trading.
MNST opened near Entry 1 price range of $60.93 (± 0.38) and moved through its Target Price of $61.54 in its third hour of trading, reaching a high of 62.17 that day. The Stop Loss was set at $60.32.
Thursday Morning Featured Stock
Our featured stock for Thursday is Raytheon Co (RTN). RTN is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (C) indicating it ranks in the top 50th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +1.61% in tomorrow. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%. Make sure to close position before earnings, seven days from today.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks,please click here.
The stock is trading at $201.81 at the time of publication, up 0.82% from the open with a +0.67% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $203.35, a low of $201.32 and a high of $204.74.
The predicted close for Thursday is $203.00. Vector figures stay positive tomorrow and drive upward throughout the 10-day forecast. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
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West Texas Intermediate for August delivery (CLQ8) is priced at $68.27 per barrel, up 0.16% from the open, at the time of publication. After falling in early morning trading, oil rallied while investors waited on news from the major OPEC committee meeting today. Energy Information Administration reported domestic crude supplies climbed by nearly 6 million last week while daily production also rose. A recent drop in output from Iran could put pressure on prices.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $14.07 at the time of publication, up 0.86% from the open. Vector figures show 0.93% today, which turns 1.73% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold started the day with a steep drop before rebounding to modest loses. This would be the fourth straight day of losses for the commodity and about a 10% loss since the commodity recorded record highs in January. Predictably, the dollar is modestly up. The price for August gold (GCQ8) is down 0.06% at $1,226.20 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $116.25, down .03% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.17% for today, reaching -1.10% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower earlier in the day but as more economic reports and testimony from Chairman Powell continues to come in, long-term notes rebounded while the 2-year note looks continues to edge down. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.03% at 2.86% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up .26% at 2.98% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see all negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.19% moves to -0.29% in four trading sessions and continues to lower throughout the 10-day forecast.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 0.25% at 12.03 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is 12.04 with a vector of -0.44%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.