S&P 500: Will July Slide Lead to a Rollover?
Just Monday, it was hard to miss the cowbells and crowing on Twitter of how clean Monday’s low was… how easy it was to pick off — how anybody who’d missed it must be an idiot. What do these folks do if the SPX snaps 2700 here and follows through below 2670 and the 200 day m.a and a rising trendline defining 2018? Do they assume it’s another ‘opportunity’?
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We’ve already discussed the invalidity of investing advice like “sell in May if you go away,” and showed that most of these pithy aphorisms simply don’t hold water over time or under scrutiny.
The fact is markets tend to maintain the trend established through the first half of the year. In 2018, that has meant volatility.
Volatility, that is wide up and down swings, often suggests a change in trend, especially if that trend has been in place for more than a decade and held up by manipulative monetary policy. (Ahem)
Bull tops such as 2000 and 1929 are as close as the market has ever come to perfection.
And that is the problem. The irony of that victory of sentiment, of conviction over skepticism — in its near perfection — is that the performance couldn’t be sustained beyond the moment.
At extreme highs and buying climaxes in stocks and in the market as a whole, great traders recognize extreme taken to a new extreme and realizing the temporality of this react with raw emotion.
Such is the terrifying terrain swelled with volatility this year versus the extreme calm in 2017.
Just Monday, it was hard to miss the cowbells and crowing on Twitter of how clean Monday’s low was… how easy it was to pick off — how anybody who’d missed it must be an idiot.
What do these folks do if the SPX snaps 2700 here and follows through below 2670 and the 200 day m.a and a rising trendline defining 2018? Do they assume it’s another ‘opportunity’?