Q3 Earnings Season Supports U.S. Markets, Treasury Yields Move Higher
Last week, U.S. indices snapped a multi-day losing streak to finish the weak in the green as the latest earnings season kicked off with major banks alongside the minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Stronger than expected retail sales data, released on Friday, also supported markets global production and distribution concerns bubbled up. Inflation remains a key concern while the VIX has returned to the $16 level.
NFLX, BK, and JNJ are key earnings announcements this week that can potentially influence the market direction, as the continuation of the Q3 earnings season is the main event that can influence market direction. Please watch the critical support levels on the SPY at $440 and then at $436 as the bottoming process continues; the $TLT started to rebound and should provide support for the technology stocks and the $SPY. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
- Industrial Production (September) – Monday
- Building Permits (September) – Tuesday
- Housing Starts (September) – Tuesday
- Beige Book – Wednesday
- Weekly Jobless Claims (10/16) – Thursday
- Existing Home Sales (September) – Thursday
- Leading Economic Indicators (September) – Thursday
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Tuesday Morning Featured Symbol
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is SPDR Tech Select Sector (XLK). XLK is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The symbol is trading at $157.23with a vector of +0.23% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, gdx. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. Not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
Oil
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $80.69 per barrel, up 0.30% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $56.18 at the time of publication. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.07% at $1793.40 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $163.92 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.13% for today. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 1.539% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 2.031% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $16.31 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
