Trump’s Legal Fiascos Return, U.S. Markets at All-Time High
Markets are at an all-time high with the S&P touching record highs yesterday among renewed optimism in trade negotiations with China. It is unclear what could make markets break overhead resistance but, in the meantime, investors should look to hedge their long positions. Developments in Trump’s legal issues saw both Manafort and Cohen cases reach critical points earlier in the week. The market has shrugged off Trump issues before so investors should look to see if the same holds true this time around. More retail earnings are in line for the week as well as the FOMC minutes from the early August meeting, which did not see an interest rate increase. Seasonal Charts continue to project solid support and resistance levels for short and long-term trading.
With recent Trump critiques of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, today’s Fed speech will be reviewed with renewed interest. Trump appointed Powell earlier this year but has recently fired a string of critiques aimed at the central bank and Chairman Powell. The minutes from the last FOMC meeting will also be released and serve as a good indicator of market trends and direction. Other than Powell, Trump has also lent his legal issues to loom over markets this week. Paul Manafort, former Trump campaign chairman, had been convicted for five counts of fraud on Monday, while long-time personal lawyer Michael Cohen turned himself into the FBI and will likely move forward with a plea deal. Trump’s previous legal issues did little to affect markets and investors and traders alike will hope for similar results as both cases continue to unfold.
Overall, U.S. stocks are making modest movement today as all three major U.S. indices remain near their opening positions. Some major strategists are viewing the current bull-market run as the longest in history, dating to the low point of the 2009 recession, where they consider the run to start through today. Notably, through all the ups and downs of the summer the S&P was able to finish in the green for April, May, June, July, and on track to do so in August.
Target, Lowe’s, and Urban Outfitters benefited from promising earnings reports to move shares significantly higher. HP Inc., Gap, and Alibaba will report tomorrow as the rate of earnings continues to thin out, with less than 100 set for next week.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.21% moves to -0.12% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,842.89. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On August 15th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
UNH opened within Entry 1 price range of $261.10 (± 0.90) and moved through its Target price of $263.71, in the fifth hour of trading the following day. The Stop Loss was set at $258.49.
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Thursday Morning Featured Stock
Our featured stock for Thursday is Honeywell Intl Inc. (HON). HON is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $156.1 at the time of publication, down 0.56% from the open with a +0.11% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $157.33, a low of 157.21 and a high of $158.34.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Oil
West Texas Intermediate for October delivery (CLV8) is priced at $67.93 per barrel, up 3.16% from the open, at the time of publication. A surprise decline in crude U.S. inventories is boosting prices today as the commodity continues its multi-day run. The EIA also reported, today, that domestic crude supplies fell last week.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model MIXED signals. The fund is trading at $14.26 at the time of publication, up 3.15% from the open. Vector figures show -0.06% today, which turns +0.50% in two trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
With the dollar’s continued decline, gold looks to build on its recent rally, looking to hold above the previously broken $1200 level. Some analysts are calling the recent drop in the dollar as a correction, which could be snapped with more Fed Reserve developments in today’s released minutes and speech. The price for December gold (GCZ8) is up 0.18% at $1,202.50 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows MIXED signals. The gold proxy is trading at $113.12, up 0.09% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.09% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
Treasury notes continue to lower as investors await FOMC meeting minutes. With yields continuing to lower this week, bond traders will look for inflation and interest developments in the days to come from the Federal Reserve. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 0.29% at 2.83% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see POSITIVE signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.04% moves to +1.16% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 4.59% at $14.46 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows MIXED signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $13.03 with a vector of +2.27%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
