September Volatility On The Horizon?
Low volume and continued trade tension are holding markets to modest gains today after a Tuesday rally that saw energy and telecommunications lead U.S indices into nice gains. September is usually a low volume month that harbors sizeable volatility and with more tariffs on the horizon action looks to be slow today. The U.S. recently extended another invitation to negotiate trade with China before further tariffs get initiated by either side. Investors should continue monitoring 50-day moving average and seasonal charts for good indicators of support and resistance levels as we continue to wait for further trade developments. SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
While President Trump recently threatened China with further tariffs, tariff escalation looks to have slightly paused with the U.S officials extend a trade-talk invite to Beijing. Chinese and U.S delegates met last month to no success and will try to meet once more to resolve the back and forth before any further tariffs are issued. If the recently announced tariffs go through, China will likely respond with further tariffs. The tariff escalation and tension between the U.S. and China has put pressure on global markets as emerging markets have struggled in recent weeks.
The tech sector continues to wobble as it is down today but was one of the main components of yesterday’s rally, helping the Dow record triple-digit gains. Apple stock is slightly down just ahead of its big company event but has gained over 30% this year. T-Mobile and Sprint merger was placed on pause by the Federal Communications Commission yesterday which has since helped both stocks to 3% gains. Tesla has also found some volatility as shares continued to feel the negative fallout of recent Elon Musk actions, down 2% yesterday, but are up today 4%. One more big mover to note today is Snap Inc. which dropped over 8% after recent user trend reports showed a sizeable drop-off. Look for the Federal Reserve Beige Book, which is due to be released later today, data as a good indicator of market condition and trends.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.16% moves to -0.03% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,892.41. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On September 4th, our ActiveInvestor service produced a bearish recommendation for General Electric Co. (GE). ActiveInvestor is included in Tradespoon Tools and Premium membership plans and is designed for swing trading.
Trade Breakdown
GE entered the forecasted Entry 1 price range of $12.95 (± 0.06) in its first hour of trading 9/4/18 and moved through its Target price of $12.30 in its third hour of trading on 9/7/18. The Stop Loss was set at $13.60.
We are going to do something that we RARELY do!
Today only, anyone who signs up for our Stock Forecast Toolbox Membership will be automatically upgraded to our Tools Membership at NO ADDITIONAL COST!
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Thursday Morning Featured Stock
Our featured stock for Thursday is Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC). NSC is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $178.07 at the time of publication, up 0.04% from the open with a +0.06% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $54.42, a low of $54.15 and a high of $55.25.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Oil
West Texas Intermediate for October delivery (CLV8) is priced at $70.44 per barrel, up 1.75% from the open, at the time of publication. A sizeable decline in domestic crude supplies is helping oil rally strongly ahead of possibly energy impact from Hurrican Florence on the east coast. Also worth noting, global benchmark crude price exceeded $80 a barrel, an almost five-year high.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model mostly all negative signals. The fund is trading at $14.8 at the time of publication, up 1.37% from the open. Vector figures show -0.16% today, which turns -1.50% in two trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for December gold (GCZ8) is up 0.96% at $1,213.80 at the time of publication. The possibility of renewed trade talks between China and the U.S. have put some pressure on the dollar which has helped support the safe-haven commodity. U.S. Producer-Price Index also declined last month, which could have also hurt the dollar and, in turn, supported gold.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $114.36, up 1.01% at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.13% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 0.55% at 2.96% at the time of publication. Long-dated Treasury yields fall ahead of key debt auction while shorter-dated yields mostly remain unmoved. Declines in Producer-Price Index and Wholesale inflation are also adding pressure to yields.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.28% moves to -1.12% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 1.06% at $13.36 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $12.71 with a vector of -3.93%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
We are going to do something that we RARELY do!
Today only, anyone who signs up for our Stock Forecast Toolbox Membership will be automatically upgraded to our Tools Membership at NO ADDITIONAL COST!
Just click the link below and it will take you to an upgrade page where you can claim this special offer!