Feds Leave Rates Near Zero, Indicate No Change Through 2023
Following the latest decision from the Federal Open Market Committee, U.S. benchmarks pushed higher after trading lower to start the week. Federal Reserve members decided to keep the central bank’s interest rate unchanged while also leaving most of the policies in place. Fed Chair Jerome Powell met with the press following the conclusion of the two-day meeting and signaled at a no rate-change decision likely through 2023. All three major U.S. indices then, in turn, turned positive with the Dow leading the way at 0.58% gains. The Fed stated interest rate would remain near zero as well as its intent to maintain the 2% inflation target and monthly asset purchasing program.
Though economic growth is forecasted as vaccine rollouts continue alongside the latest $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill, several economic levels continue to lack as compared to pre-COVID levels. These levels will be highly monitored in the months to come as well as the latest movement on Treasury notes, with the 10-year yield hitting a 14-month high at 1.645%. On Thursday, FedEx and Nike are set to release corporate earnings. Globally, Asian and European markets largely finished in the red.
The momentum behind bulls is deteriorating and we expect a short-term correction this week or the next, back to the 50-day moving average. Until an additional breakout maintained, our models are projecting the SPY to trade in the range of $375-$397. The next level of support is set at the 50-day moving average of $375-$380 and we encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week
- FOMC Decision/Fed Chair Powell Announcement – Wednesday
- Building Permits (February) – Wednesday
- Housing Starts (February) – Wednesday
- Weekly Jobless Claims (3/13) – Thursday
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Vlad’s Portfolio Lifetime Membership!
DO AS I DO… AS I DO IT WATCH LIVE AS I WORK THE MARKETS! TRY IT NOW RISK-FREE!
Thursday Morning Featured Symbol
Our featured symbol for Thursday is Delta Air Lines (Dal). DAL is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $50.44 with a vector of -0.01% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, DAL. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. Not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) priced at $64.47 per barrel, down 0.51% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $43.67 at the time of publication. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) up 0.74% at $1743.70 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $161.66 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.51% for today. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.645% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 2.426% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.67 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session