Markets Mixed as Fed Chair Jerome Powell Nominated for Second Term
Fear of runaway inflation and lockdowns in Europe present some concern for investors as we head into the shortened trade week and the end of the year. The VIX returned to the $18 level to start the week as U.S. benchmarks traded to mixed results, with the Dow in the green while S&P and Nasdaq closed lower. The Dow’s positive session snapped a multi-day streak while the Nasdaq saw a significant drop. On the Federal end, Fed Chair Jerome Powell received his second term nomination from President Biden while inflation concerns and the bond buy-back program remain the key points of interest for the Fed heading into next year. DKS, BBY, and ADI are key earnings announcements this week that can potentially influence the market direction.
Currently, we are still expecting the market to pull back in the next two weeks and rebound toward the end of December; critical support levels for the SPY are set at $462 and then at $455. Globally, both Asian and European markets traded to mixed results as lockdowns and growing COVID concerns continue to mount. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
- Existing Home Sales (October) – Monday
- Markit Manufacturing PMI (November) – Tuesday
- Markit Services PMI (November) – Tuesday
- Weekly Jobless Claims (11/20) – Wednesday
- GDP Revision (Q3) – Wednesday
- GDP Domesitc Income (Q3) – Wednesday
- Core Capital Goods Orders (October) – Wednesday
- Durable Goods Orders (October) – Wednesday
- Personal Income (October) – Wednesday
- Core Inflation (October) – Wednesday
- New Home Sales (October) – Wednesday
- FOMC Minutes – Wednesday
- 5-Year Inflation Expectations (November) – Wednesday
- Thanksgiving Day – Thursday
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For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Tuesday Morning Featured Symbol
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is D.R. Horton (DHI). DHI is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The symbol is trading at $100.17 with a vector of +0.63% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, DHI. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. Not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
Oil
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $76.39 per barrel, down 0.47% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $54.59 at the time of publication. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.15% at $1809.00 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $174.51 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.18% for today. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.630% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 1.964% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $19.17 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
