October Retail Sales Report Underwhelms But Q3 Corporate Earnings Continue To Impress
Increase in U.S. COVID cases
U.S. Markets finished lower on Wednesday as all three major U.S. indices closed in the red behind underwhelming economic reports and an increase in U.S. COVID cases. The latest monthly retail data underwhelmed investors upon its release as the data showed a slow down in most retail sectors in October while online shopping remained high.
Walmart boosted by online sales
Similarly, Walmart’s earnings report showed an increase in sales and growth majorly boosted by online sales. Upcoming earnings Nvidia and L Brands while Lowes, Target, and TJX Companies release earnings before the market open today.
Pfizer vaccine 95% effectiveness with “no serious side effects”
The latest on the Pfizer vaccine has the company reporting 95% effectiveness with “no serious side effects” at this point, promoting the company to file an emergency-use authorization motion, likely “within days.” Elsewhere, Bitcoin continues its rally now nearing $18,000 while European markets and Asian markets, apart from Japan, closed unanimously higher. Also worth noting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in his latest speech that the Fed intends to keep rates low as long as needed during the pandemic.
SPY between the $340-$360 levels until an additional breakout is confirmed
Last week, markets briefly traded above all-time high levels. Keeping this in mind, our latest models are projecting the SPY to trade between the $340-$360 levels until an additional breakout is confirmed. We continue seeing strong rotation from growth to value stocks and believe the SPY is on its way to retest its recent highs. With the market prone to further corrections, the next level of support is set at $350. Similarly, we will continue monitoring VIX levels, as the market can overshoot support and resistance levels when VIX is trading near the $25 level. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week
- Housing Starts (October) – Wednesday
- Building Permits (October) – Wednesday
- Weekly Jobless Claims (11/14) – Thursday
- Index of Leading Economic Indicators (October) – Thursday
- NVDA – Nvidia – Wednesday
- LOW – Lowes – Wednesday
- TGT – Target – Wednesday
- TJX – TJX Companies – Wednesday
- LB – L Brands – Wednesday
- M – Macy’s – Thursday
- INTU – Intuit Inc. – Thursday
- WDAY – Workday – Thursday
- FL – Foot Locker – Friday
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For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Thursday Morning Featured Symbol
Our featured symbol for Thursday is Unum Group (UNM). UNM is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $15.8 with a vector of +2.16% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, UNM. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $41.62 per barrel, up 46% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $29.02 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.75% at $1871.00 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $175.67, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.08% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 0.935% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 1.717% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $23.18 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.