U.S. Indices Ride Four-Month Streak, Finish Quarter Higher; Biden Unveils Infrastructure Plan
S&P 5.8% gains in first quarter of 2021
U.S. Benchmarks finished the first quarter of 2021 in the green, following a four-month win streak that saw shares trade higher as vaccine distribution and the latest economic relief bill was passed. Strong earnings and economic reports also helped as the S&P saw 5.8% gains, Nasdaq at 2.8%, and the Dow up 7.8% for the quarter.
10-year note currently at a one-year high of 1.745%
The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, now and through 2023, appears to have also contributed to moderate economic growth as reported by the Federal Open Market Committee. Yields on Treasury rates rose throughout the month and quarter, with the 10-year note currently at a one-year high of 1.745% while the 30-year note sits at 2.414%. The latest ADP employment report showed private-sector jobs rose significantly in the last month while the government employment and unemployment monthly data is due Friday. A new multi-trillion infrastructure plan is set to be announced by President Biden today which includes a corporate income tax raise and targets manufacturing, transportation, and quality of life among other topics. Globally, Asian markets closed in the red while European markets also finished lower, pressured by the latest comments from the European Central Bank and a surge in COVID-rates.
SPY to trade in the range of $375-$397
With the strong recent rebound and deteriorating momentum behind treasury and currency markets, it is only a matter of time for the $SPY to break above the $400 level. We continue seeing momentum behind the bulls deteriorating and we expect a short-term correction this week or the next, moving back to the 50-day moving average. Until an additional breakout is maintained, our models are projecting the SPY to trade in the range of $375-$397. The next level of support is set at the 50-day moving average of $380-$385 and we encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
- ADP Employment Report (March) – Wednesday
- Weekly Jobless Claims (3/27) – Thursday
- Markit Manufacturing PMI (March) – Thursday
- Nonfarm Payrolls (March) – Friday
- Unemployment Rate (March) – Friday
- Average Hourly Earnings (March)
- U.S. Markets Closed (Good Friday) – Friday
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Thursday Morning Featured Symbol
Our featured symbol for Thursday is Peloton Interactive (PTON). PTON is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $112.44 with a vector of -0.95% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, PTON. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. Not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $59.43 per barrel, down 1.85% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $40.53 at the time of publication. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 1.34% at $1708.60 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $159.96 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.05% for today. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.745% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 2.414% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $19.4 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session