U.S. Markets Edge Higher, Vaccine Production and Distribution Increase
All three major U.S. indices are trading in the green today, with the Nasdaq in the lead up 1.7%, after closing in the red last week. The Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates unchanged and signaled at no change through 2023, however, inflation and interest rate concerns weighed on market sentiment with rising yields on long term treasury notes. Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chair Powell are set to testify in Congress this week; key economic reports to monitor include monthly inflation, consumer spending, and personal income.
AstraZeneca vaccine producing improved trial data
The latest development on the vaccine front sees the AstraZeneca vaccine producing improved trial data while Pfizer and Moderna are optimizing production, pushing all three symbols higher today. U.S. vaccine distribution looks to triple last month’s output as pharmaceutical companies are scaling up production with the help of the latest federal relief bill. Both oil and gold futures traded lower today while European and Asian markets produced mixed results.
SPY to trade in the range of $375-$397
We are seeing momentum behind the bulls deteriorating and we expect a short-term correction this week or the next, moving back to the 50-day moving average. Until an additional breakout is maintained, our models are projecting the SPY to trade in the range of $375-$397. The next level of support is set at the 50-day moving average of $375-$380 and we encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
- Current Account Deficit (Q4) – Tuesday
- New Home Sales (February) – Tuesday
- Durable Goods Orders (February) – Wednesday
- Core Capital Goods (February) – Wednesday
- Markit Manufacturing PMI (March) – Wednesday
- Markit Services PMI (March) – Wednesday
- Gross Domestic Product (Q4) – Thursday
- Weekly Jobless Claims (3/20) – Thursday
- Personal Income (February) – Friday
- Consumer Spending (February) – Friday
- Core Inflation (February) – Friday
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Tuesday Morning Featured Symbol
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is S&P 500 Technology Sector SPDR (XLK). XLK is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $132.08 with a vector of -0.67% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, XLK. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. Not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) priced at $61.47 per barrel, up 0.08% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $41.78 at the time of publication. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.15% at $1739.20 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $163.03 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.61% for today. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 1.689% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 2.389% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $19.3 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session