U.S. Stocks Continue Surge, Presidential Election and FOMC Results Still Due
Although the U.S. presidential race is too close to call following yesterday’s election, U.S. Benchmarks extended their streak on Wednesday after closing sharply higher on Tuesday. All three major U.S. indices closed in the green, with the Nasdaq leading at 3.85% gains. For the most part, U.S. assets are responding well to the election with major tech leading the surge while additional earnings and the latest FOMC decision remain on the docket for this week. Uber and Lyft shares surged over 10% following a legislative victory in California while banks and bond yields saw shares lower today. Tomorrow, Fed Chair Powell will meet with the press following the conclusion of the latest Federal Open Market Committee. Earlier today, private sector labor data showed a continued, though subtle, increase in employment for the month of October; additional employment data such as average hourly earnings and unemployment is due Friday. Globally, Asian markets closed to mixed results while European markets rose impressively. Our latest models are projecting the SPY to trade in the range of $318-$360 and we will look to be buyers into any short-term corrections. The SPY closed above the key resistance level of $342 and as long as the market trades above this level, the SPY is on its way to retest its recent highs before the end of November. With the market prone to further corrections, the next level of support is set at $354. We expect volatility to persist as uncertainty around the elections continues and we will continue monitoring VIX levels, as the market can overshoot support and resistance levels when VIX is trading near the $40 level. Likewise, we encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week
- ADP Employment (October) – Wednesday
- Trade Deficit (September) – Wednesday
- Weekly Jobless Claims (10/31) – Thursday
- Productivity (Q3) – Thursday
- Unit Labor Costs (Q3) – Thursday
- FOMC Announcement – Thursday
- Unemployment Rate (October) – Friday
- Average Hourly Earnings (October) – Friday
- Wholesale Inventories (September) – Friday
- Consumer Credit (September) – Friday
- ALL – Allstate – Wednesday
- FIT – Fitbit – Wednesday
- GDDY – GoDaddy – Wednesday
- H – Hyatt – Wednesday
- MRO – Marathon Oil – Wednesday
- MET – MetLife – Wednesday
- QCOMM – Qualcomm – Wednesday
- WEN – Wendy’s – Wednesday
- ZNGA – Zynga – Wednesday
- BABA – Alibaba Group – Thursday
- BKNG – Booking Holdings – Thursday
- CZR – Caesars Entertainment – Thursday
- CAH – Cardinal Health – Thursday
- D – Dominion Energy – Thursday
- DUK – Duke Energy – Thursday
- EA – Electronic Arts – Thursday
- GM – General Motors – Thursday
- GRPN – Groupon – Thursday
- LYV – Live Nation Entertainment – Thursday
- PZZA – Papa John’s – Thursday
- PTON – Peloton International – Thursday
- RMAX – Re/Max Holdings – Thursday
- ROKU – Roku – Thursday
- SQ – Square – Thursday
- TMUS – T-Mobile US – Thursday
- TRIP – TripAdvisor – Thursday
- UBER – Uber Technologies – Thursday
- YELP – Yelp – Thursday
- ZG – Zillow Group – Thursday
- CVS – CVS Health – Friday
- HSY – Hershey – Friday
- HMC – Honda – Friday
- MAR – Marriott International – Friday
- TM – Toyota Motor – Friday
- VIAC – ViacomCBS – Friday
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For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Thursday Morning Featured Symbol
Our featured symbol for Thursday is Microsoft (MSFT). MSFT is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $216.39 with a vector of -0.60% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, MSFT. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $39.14 per barrel, up 3.93% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $27.44 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.40% at $1902.80 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $178.82, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.52% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 0.804% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.596% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $29.57 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.