Weak Global Data, Brexit Snaps Three Day Streak

by Vlad Karpel | 03/15/2019, 00:32

U.S. stocks are struggling for direction with all three major indices exchanging slight losses for slight gains throughout the day, currently on track to close in the red. This comes after three straight days of gains behind better than expected economic reports and a lack of global-trade turmoil or fear, which bogged down stocks last week. Two major earnings are scheduled for today after market close: Oracle and Adobe. Boeing remains in the spotlight as the U.S. joined the majority of European and Asian nations in banning the 737 MAX jet, the same plane that was used in the Ethiopian Airline crash last week. Global trade might be the biggest influencer in slowing markets today as Chinese industrial data showed an almost 20-year low for the world’s second-largest economy thus far in 2019. A second Brexit referendum was rejected by UK Parliament today, making the next likely step an extension, providing major uncertainty for the pond and global market. We encourage our members to monitor our proprietary tools to enhance and inform trades. Currently, SPY is trading at $281, above the 200-day moving average which sits at $274. We remain bullish in the long term but could see a return $264-$268 level if we drop below 200-day moving average level. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

All three major U.S. indices are on track to close slightly lower, if not flat, today, snapping a three-day streak. Dollar General reported earnings before the market open today and saw shares slide over 7% after the discount retailer did not meet expectations and provided a poor sales outlook for 2019. Industry-giants tech and software giants, Oracle and Adobe, are set to release earnings after market close today. Look for several more big-name earnings next week including Tilray, FedEx, and General Mills.

Boeing returned to negative territory, currently down 0.5%, after snapping a seven-day losing streak. Following a long list of nations that banned the aircraft model immediately following news of the crash, the U.S. banned the 737 MAX jet yesterday. This helped the sliding stock though the stock remains down over 10% for the week. Look for more on Boeing and the crash aftermath as the investigation into the crash continues.

Looking globally, Asian markets are trading mostly lower while European markets closed higher. Chinese markets are reacting to a recent industrial report that showed the country’s output had decreased significantly in 2019, its lowest in over 17 years. This could factor in China-U.S. trade negotiations as both sides look to come to an agreement this month. Also looking for some resolution this month, U.K. Parliament members are set to vote on a Brexit extension today ahead of their March deadline.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.24% moves to -1.07% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,767.74. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On March 12th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Apple Inc (AAPL). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

AAPL entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $178.90 (± 1.01) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $180.69 in the first hour of trading, reaching a high of 181.98. The Stop Loss price was set at $177.11.

Friday Morning Featured Stock

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

Our featured stock for Friday is Procter and Gamble Co (PG). PG is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.

The stock is trading at $101.49 at the time of publication, with a +0.10% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

Oil

West Texas Intermediate for April delivery (CLJ9) is priced at $58.58 per barrel, up 0.55% from the open, at the time of publication. Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows negative signals. The fund is trading at $12.21 at the time of publication. Vector figures show -0.18% today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for April gold (GCJ9) is down 0.99% at $1,246.30 at the time of publication. Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $122.42, down 1.00% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.41% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.31% at 2.63% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.99% at 3.05% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.31% moves to +1.41% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 1.57% at $13.62 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $13.51 with a vector of +4.41%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.